Low Risk Predictions
I predict an abundant harvest from the rich soil
the kind that rewards us for our immense toil
I predict the children will create a snow angel
high in the alpine mountains where the snow fell
I predict a night as black as an obsidian panther
to be followed by a glorious day filled with laughter
I predict the value of jade will not fade with time
just like the value of life increases by design
I predict that taunting a bull with a little red flag
will get him to charge, and might let you brag
Some choose to make their predictions wild and bold
but my predictions seem simple and safe so I’m told
The method you choose may depend on your employment
a low risk approach avoids disappointment
——
Special Note: In one of my former lives, I was stock market analyst and investment newsletter author. As such, the financial press was constantly seeking my predictions. However, no one can truly predict the market, but that’s not what the press wanted to hear. One of the unwritten rules (or perhaps it is written somewhere) of making market predictions is that if you ever predict the level of the Dow (or any stock price), then do not give a date. The corollary is: if talking about a specific time frame, then avoid specific prices. I personally tried to avoid all predictions, but when pressed, I would offer up a low-risk prediction such as “the current market volatility will likely remain with us for a while.”
——
Linked to dVerse Poets Pub — Poetics: Take a risk!, where Tricia has asked to write about risk.
Linked to Linda Kruschke’s Paint Chip Poetry Challenge Prompt #17. The challenge is to write a poem in response to the prompt card that includes at least three of the seven paint chip words or phrases. The prompt phrase is I Predict and the prompt words are: jade, alpine, red flag, snow angel, rich soil, obsidian, and panther.
I love this! Low-risk at times avoids problems such as expectations or disappointment. Well said.
How delightful! Your special note has been noted!!!
So creative! You are the prompt king today! In my former life I used to work in correspondence for a mutual fund company in Kansas City, DST Systems. I much prefer poetry but it did pay some bills! 😊
Thank you. I remember DST, I believe they provided fund accounting for some of the funds I worked with.
Yes, they are big in KC! It was my first job out of college and I got to work downtown.
I like how you personalized risk and then gave the origin story. From your origin story I gather that the predictions are a lot like statistical probability. What I’ve learned about statistics is that statistics lie and portray whatever the presenter of them wants them to. Having done a little research when I was in college, there is quite an intricate science to it that most don’t understand so are very easy to manipulate. I like how you reached your decision on statements to give to the press. Enjoyable read all the way through, Ron.
Thanks. I believe the quote you might be thinking of is “lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Yes, my investment approach was one where I always tried to be on the right side of the statistical probability.
You are welcome, Ron.
Great poem Ron! I think it is within us to want to make speculation and predictions. Often not a good idea. I like your low key prediction advice!
Thanks. I also believe that humans have selective memory, allowing them to recall the one or two times their speculative prediction came true while forgetting the hundreds of time they didn’t.
Ha ha… you are right!
This is a beautifully written poem Ron, and an interesting background too. I think the predictions you make are of so much more value than anything the stock market could offer us 🙂
Heisenberg-ish – leave the box closed so one never has to see the dead cat ~
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty certainly comes into play.
well done, Ron! Well done!
-David
Thanks. I believe your dad would approve of my probability analysis in this one.
🙂
Your poem has inspired me to take on more more low-risk predications and professions
in the future.
Doing everything low risk can be boring. I believe one should also pursue high risk endeavors. However, one should always understand that risk and employ appropriate safeguards.
We can get caught up in our fears of being wrong, and miss out on a lot. I would say that the thing to reign in is your expectations, not your actions. (K)
Yes, managing expectations is probably more important. A good friend of mine always says that “he sets the bar of expectations so low that he can easily step over it”
That’s my philosophy in a nutshell.
Wise words, well put, Ron. I imagine you were a very trustworthy stock market analyst 🙂
If you don’t have integrity, then you don’t have anything.
I like your predictions. thanks for sharing.
Haha – I had a little chuckle at this (I think it was written tongue in cheek…maybe 🙂 )
Yet put together like a finely honed sculpture. A pleasure to read.
I think we should always take risks with care… mostly avoiding risks is probably wise.
Since I suffer from eternal optimism your poem was a delight to me. Your special note reminded me somehow of the prescribed business theory of criticism — the Oreo cookie approach wherein criticism was couched safely within fluffed feathers!
I’m not sure I would label eternal optimism a suffering, but I’m glad it brought you delight. I had not heard that form of criticism referred to as the Oreo approach before…I guess I didn’t read enough business books.
Cool! I have a friend who studied meteorology and he’s made similar comments on predicting the weather – a low risk prediction is one that says tomorrow will be similar to today.
Yes, when I lived in Texas, a summer time forecast of “sunny with a high of 97” for the next 10 days was a pretty safe bet.
Sound and practical advice in a sound and practical low risk poem – a perfect match.